Premier League 13 - Twelfth League Day, Birmingham
We predict how many points will be needed to qualify for the 02 and some tips for this week's action!
Last week's darts coverage left me scratching my head! Not because of Barney's inability to beat Taylor or even Jackpot's inability to beat anyone at the moment! It was the pundits that got my head spinning. Wayne started it! He mentioned he loved Mighty Mike's facial expressions on his face. As I was pondering whether it was possible to have facial expressions anywhere else he hit us with the fact MVG's throw was rapid and fast!Not to be outdone the commentary team during the Taylor/Hamilton match predicted that 18 points would be the cut off from promotion and one of either Taylor or Hamilton was bound to be eliminated as there were just 4 weeks left and both players had ten points! This just didn't sound right although it didn't hit me immediately that it is of course the fact that players are now playing twice. This actually meant that before last week's games kicked off the majority of the players still had 6 games to play despite there being only being 4 weeks remaining!
But what about that cut off point prediction for the 02? 18 points still seems high even with the extra games added that were overlooked by the pundits. Looking back at the recent history of the Premier League helped us accurately predict the points needed to avoid relegation. So can the recent history of the qualifying tally that booked a place at the 02 over the past few seasons help us? In the past three seasons fourth place has been secured with:
- 2012 13 points from 14 games
- 2011 14 points from 14 games
- 2010 13 points from 14 games
This season there are 16 games of course. If you take the average points required from the past three seasons to make the play offs (0.95 per game x 16 games) this gives you a tally of 15.25 points needed to qualify this time round. 16 points then would appear to be the benchmark and should (it may come down to leg difference) mean a ticket to the play offs!
Talking of playing twice this has proved so far to be a hindrance for the players. Mighty Mike promised us after his first match last week he had learnt how to play two games in a night after going through the same experience the week before. He didn't have the same explosive qualities though he had in his first game, despite beating an out of sorts Jackpot. MVG hit a 106 average against Barney in his first match and this slumped to 90.74 second time around against Lewis. It seems that there is still work to be done for players coming on for a second time in a night.
However, perhaps the last game damp squib can be turned to our advantage? This week Robert Thornton plays Jackpot in the last game of the night. Earlier Jackpot plays The Power and The Thorn is up against Andy Hamilton. Two thoughts here, The Thorn is 7/5 to beat Lewis. I reckon that Thornton may be better prepared for the last game than Lewis and at 7/5 seems worth an investment.
Another option is, do you remember we discussed the most 180's hit on the night market? This week it is the turn of MVG to challenge the four players playing twice. The obvious danger is Thornton, he has hit 42 180's to MVG's 49 so he should, with an extra game, win this market and is joint favourite at a market best price of 2/1 with Ladbrokes along with Jackpot (33 so far). But if last game syndrome hits The Thorn and Lewis the 20/1 also on offer from Ladbrokes for MVG to hit the most despite playing once may be worth a speculative punt!
Looking at the matches from a more positive angle the Whitlock V MVG has the potential to be a cracker. Mighty Mike has sustained his "shock and awe" power scoring tactics (in his first match of the night anyway) and The Wizard is making a push for the play offs. The over 6.5 180's from Paddy Power at evens looks tempting in what should be a high scoring game!